Friday, July 25, 2008

Ir's still got to be Hillary!

So far Latinos are the only group of Hillary's primary voters gravitating en masse to Obama. Clinton is still holding onto a large chunk of her 18 million votes, many of which will vote McCain if she is not slected VP, becuase she represents the center of her party, and working class democrat voters. Whether that number is 10% or 25%, which would be deadly, she is the choice that stops the hemmoraghing and seals the deal for Obama.

The fear of losing radical liberal democrats with her selection is minimal, since that group will definitely not vote McCain, and either stay home or vote some distant third party candidate, so the net effect is still in Hillary's court, and in Obama's best interest.

Given an economy in the tank and the weariness of the war, the Democrat should be up by 18 points at least. Instead he is at a steady 46 to 41, plus or minus the margin of error - a dead heat. That's not good for the Democrat, especially one who has to combat preceptions of inexperience, and an economic agenda many will liken to that of Carter's Presidency.

There is not one candidate mentioned that would stop the disenchantment of Hillary voters, and not one that could guarantee the victory Obama seems to be taking for granted.

David DiBello

No comments: